Ghana’s national cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, has projected a drop of at least 16 per cent in domestic cocoa production for the 2026/2027 crop season beginning in September. 

Responding to market inquiries on Friday, July 31, 2026, the regulator confirmed that adverse weather patterns, tree biology, and environmental pressures will severely constrain harvest yields across key growing belts.

COCOBOD attributed the expected shortfall to anticipated El Niño conditions, excessive rainfall during May and June, and the natural biennial bearing cycle of cocoa trees, which causes yields to alternate between high and low cycles. 

The regulator noted a sharp decline in cherelle load, the survival rate of young pods, in the Western and Western North regions. Together, these two regions account for over half of Ghana’s total cocoa output. 

Production in these zones has been further degraded by the spread of cocoa swollen shoot virus disease, ageing cocoa trees, and widespread encroachment by illegal gold miners, locally known as galamsey.

COCOBOD has initiated farm rehabilitation programs in infected areas, expanded pesticide and fungicide spraying operations, and announced the reintroduction of a nationwide free fertiliser distribution scheme for the 2026/2027 crop year. 

The projected contraction in Ghana mirrors wider supply disruptions across West Africa, with neighbouring Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, also forecasting a production drop of more than 10 per cent for the upcoming season.

Source: CNBC Africa
Image Credit: Cocobod