The conflict escalated dramatically on February 28, 2026, when the United States launched Operation Epic Fury, a series of targeted strikes on key military and infrastructure sites in the Republic of Iran. Iran, a major crude oil exporter, also holds operational control over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. This strait handles about 20% of the world’s maritime petroleum shipments, making it a global chokepoint.

In the immediate aftermath, Iran closed the strait, halting oil flows and triggering sharp market reactions. Brent crude prices, already up from $60.89 per barrel on January 5 to $73.84 on February 27, are now expected to surge further as supplies tighten. China, which imported 80% of Iran’s seaborne crude (1.38 million barrels per day in 2025), faces significant inflation pressures, equivalent to 13.4% of its total crude needs. These shocks ripple worldwide, raising transport, energy, and production costs.

For Africa, the stakes are high. Most economies, including South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, are net energy importers. Nigeria even imports crude for its Dangote refinery and refined products like petrol (PMS) for domestic use. This US-Iran war threatens food security in Africa by driving up costs for farming inputs, transport, and imports. Farmers will feel it first through higher fertiliser and fuel prices, leading to reduced yields, inflated food costs, and strained supply chains.

This article breaks down these impacts on African agriculture, highlights vulnerable areas, and outlines actionable policies for governments. It also offers practical steps for farmers to build resilience amid uncertainty.

Why Oil Prices Matter to African Agriculture

Oil prices had risen from $60.89 per barrel on January 5 to $73.84 by February 27, 2026. The war will push them higher by disrupting supplies. Africa relies heavily on imported energy. Countries like South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Nigeria import fuel for refineries and daily use.

Higher energy costs increase the oil price spike effects on farmers in several ways:

• Fuel for tractors, irrigation pumps, and transport becomes more expensive.
• Fertiliser production, which depends on natural gas linked to oil, costs more.
• Imported goods, including seeds and equipment, rise in price due to global inflation, especially from China, Africa’s main trading partner.

Nigeria, for example, has forward oil sale agreements worth $21.56 billion since 2018. These limit local supply for refineries like Dangote, forcing imports at higher prices and adding to inflation.

Direct Impacts on Farmers and Food Production

Farmers face higher costs across the board, which affects yields and incomes.

• Fertiliser expenses: A 20% oil price increase could raise fertiliser costs 15-25%. These hit smallholders growing maize, rice, and cassava the hardest.
• Transport and logistics: Fuel hikes make it costlier to move produce to markets. In West Africa, cocoa from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire faces reduced demand as global buyers cut back.
• Food price inflation: Staples like wheat, rice, and edible oils become more expensive. Net importers like Egypt and North African countries will see shortages.

Inland nations without strong exports, such as Zambia or Mali, are particularly vulnerable. Foreign investment in agriculture may also slow due to economic uncertainty.

Key Crops and Regions at Risk in the US-Iran War

The impact of the US-Iran war on African agriculture varies by crop and location.

Affected Crops

• Maize and wheat: Importers like Ethiopia compete with pricier global supplies.
• Rice and sorghum: Sahel farmers face higher seed and pump fuel costs.
• Cassava and yams: Nigeria’s production continues, but transport delays risk spoilage.

Regions Facing Challenges

• East Africa: Kenya and Ethiopia deal with fuel and fertiliser imports.
• West Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire see export demand drop.
• Southern Africa: Angola may benefit as a Chinese oil supplier, but others face inflation.
• North Africa: Morocco and Tunisia see slower farm tech imports.

Smallholder farmers, who produce most of Africa’s food, need support to adapt.

Potential Benefits for Some Areas

A few countries gain short-term advantages:

• Angola and Libya could supply more oil to China, supporting their agricultural exports.
• Oil producers like Nigeria see budget gains from higher prices, if not fully committed to prior deals.

These opportunities are limited and depend on quick action.

Recommended Government Policies to Improve Africa’s Food Supply

Governments must act to protect food supply and security in Africa. Here are seven practical policies:

Energy and Input Support

• Fuel subsidies for agriculture: Limit diesel prices for farm use, using oil revenue gains.
• Local fertiliser plants: Build facilities powered by African natural gas to reduce imports.

Supply Chain Protections

• National food reserves: Stockpile six months of grains like maize and rice.
• Infrastructure upgrades: Improve roads and rail links to cut transport costs by 20-30%.

Farmer Support

• Affordable credit and insurance: Offer low-interest loans for inputs and war-risk crop insurance.
• Seed and technology programs: Distribute resilient seeds and promote solar-powered tools.

Regional Cooperation

• Intra-African trade agreements: Exchange fertilisers and grains within the AU to build resilience.

For Nigeria, prioritising local crude would lower domestic fuel costs. Ethiopia could expand agro-processing zones.

Strategic Moves for Farmers to Improve Africa’s Food Supply

You can take these steps now:

• Monitor oil prices using reliable apps or news sources.
• Diversify crops with locally available seeds.
• Form cooperatives for bulk purchases of fuel and fertiliser.
• Adopt low-energy methods, such as solar irrigation.
• Contact local leaders to support the policies listed above.

The US strikes on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closure are set to exacerbate food supply challenges in Africa, and the broader continent risks heightened vulnerability without swift intervention. Governments hold the key to offering immediate protection. Looking ahead, this crisis underscores the need for diversified energy sources and climate-resilient farming to shield against future geopolitical shocks.

Africa’s agriculture sector employs millions and feeds the continent; protecting it is essential. Take action today: Share this analysis with your network to raise awareness.