South Africa’s agricultural exporters are bracing for higher United States tariffs to remain in place and are increasingly turning to African markets as diplomatic tensions between Pretoria and Washington deepen.
This outlook was shared by Danie Dörfling, Head of Business Development at Moore Infinity, who stated that Africa’s agricultural trade potential could expand significantly.
He stated that liberalised continental trade policies could increase intra-African trade volumes by 574% by 2030, even without the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) coming fully into force.
Dörfling noted that the sector sees worsening US tariffs as both an immediate and long-term structural risk.
“There’s a clear concern within the agricultural sector that the sector is preparing for structural worsening because of the US tariffs,” he said.
His comments follow South Africa’s recent hosting of the first G20 Leaders Summit on African soil, an event boycotted by US President Donald Trump amid continuing diplomatic friction, including discredited claims of a so-called “white genocide” and Washington’s unilateral tariff measures.
While the US has rolled back some reciprocal tariffs for seasonal goods or products it cannot domestically replace, such as citrus juice and macadamia nuts, Dörfling said this has not restored confidence.
“The sector experienced three tariff regimes in nine months. This unpredictability makes long-term investment in the US supply chain untenable. Capital is now essentially stranded because of the tariff volatility.”
Trade data shows that 16% of Africa’s total food trade last year was conducted across continents, including key staples such as sorghum, maize, beans and meat.
Estimates suggest that these goods account for approximately 32% of intra-African trade.
Dörfling noted that intra-African trade grew by 12.4% in 2024, reaching $220bn, with agriculture accounting for a disproportionately large share.
He highlighted major continental growth hotspots, saying Nigeria’s agriculture sector alone is expected to expand by $5bn by 2043, followed by Sudan, Kenya and Algeria.
Countries with established processing capacity and strategic geographic advantages are emerging as regional hubs, contracting production from smaller nations and creating economies of scale that boost productivity across the continent.
According to Dörfling, African development finance institutions have also shifted their investment strategy, moving away from financing individual farmers towards supporting aggregators, processors, logistics firms and large trade groups that work with networks of smallholder farmers.
He stated that blended finance structures are gaining momentum, supported by initiatives such as the Dakar 2 compact framework, which proposes $61 billion in blended finance for agro-industrial zones and agricultural development across approximately 40 countries.
Source: Business Day
