The shea nut industry is experiencing a pivotal moment. As of early October 2025, prices for raw shea nuts have not only stabilised but surged past pre-ban levels, signaling a potential turnaround for a sector long plagued by raw material outflows and underutilized local capacity.
This development follows the federal government’s August 26, 2025, announcement of a six-month ban on raw shea nut exports, a move aimed at redirecting resources toward domestic processing and value addition.
Let’s look closely at how this policy is changing the industry, using recent market data and insights from important stakeholders.
The export restriction, effective immediately upon announcement, falls under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the broader “Nigeria First” economic policy, and the goal was to prioritise local processing, create jobs, and capture more of the global shea market’s value.
Nigeria produces around 350,000 to 500,000 metric tons of shea nuts annually, accounting for roughly 40% of the world’s supply. Yet, historically, the country has reaped less than 1% of the $6.5 billion international market, as most nuts were exported raw, leaving value addition to foreign processors.
With the policy’s rollout, prices plummeted by about 33% in the days following the ban, dropping from an average of ₦850 per kilogram to around ₦570 per kilogram as traders scrambled to adjust. This initial crash hit hard, particularly for farmers and aggregators in rural areas where shea nut collection is a primary livelihood.
Women, who make up over 95% of shea nut pickers in Nigeria, faced immediate income erosion, with some reports highlighting reduced earnings and market disruptions. Critics, including the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), argued that the abrupt implementation risked investor confidence and could reverse gains in non-oil exports, which topped $3 billion in Q1 2025.
Fast forward to mid-September 2025, and the tide began to turn. Prices climbed back to between ₦710 and ₦800 per kilogram, driven by increased domestic demand from local processors. By early October, the average had reached approximately ₦1,000 per kilogram, an 18% increase over pre-ban levels, showing a more balanced supply-demand equation. This rebound aligns with broader regional trends; countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo have implemented similar bans since 2024, contributing to a 70% rise in global shea nut prices over the past year.
Fact-checking these figures against multiple sources confirms their accuracy. Wholesale data from platforms like Tridge and Selina Wamucii show Nigeria’s shea nut prices fluctuating but stabilising around ₦1,000 to ₦1,400 per kilogram in recent months, with export values for processed shea butter far outpacing raw nuts (e.g., a ton of Grade A unrefined shea butter fetches ₦3.5 million to ₦4 million, versus ₦800,000 to ₦900,000 for raw nuts pre-ban). Social media discussions on X (formerly Twitter) echo this, with posts from September and October noting the initial drop but highlighting the surge as local buyers step in.
At the core of the policy is revitalizing Nigeria’s over 20 domestic processing plants, many of which operated below 30% capacity due to raw material shortages. With nuts now staying in-country, factories are ramping up, potentially adding jobs in refining, packaging, and logistics.
The Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) has supported at least seven such plants, and analysts project the sector could capture up to $300 million annually in revenue if value addition scales. This aligns with the 30% Value Addition Bill, passed by the Senate in July 2025, which mandates higher domestic processing across commodities.
From a gender perspective, the ban could empower rural women, who dominate harvesting and initial processing. Long-term, stable prices mean better planning and income, fostering sustainable livelihoods in states like Niger, Kaduna, and Benue. However, short-term pains persist in some views – a BBC report from late September noted ongoing challenges for women producers, though recent price data suggests improvement.
Skeptics have warned of risks. The CPPE highlights how the ban could disrupt supply chains and deter investors if not phased properly. Globally, Nigeria’s move mirrors bans in neighboring countries, potentially tightening supply and raising prices worldwide for international buyers in cosmetics and confectionery. Ghana, planning a similar ban by 2026, is watching closely, with its processors pushing for lower local prices while farmers seek protections.
Looking ahead, if the six-month ban (set for review in February 2026) succeeds, Nigeria could transition from a raw exporter to a hub for premium shea products like butter and oils. Challenges remain, including quality control and infrastructure, but the current price stability offers a foundation for growth.
