Canada is turning its attention to Africa’s growing demand for wheat, with new conversations around how the continent could become a key export market for Canadian grain producers.
In a recently published article on The Western Producer, agricultural analyst Sean Pratt explored Canada’s strategic interest in expanding wheat trade with African countries. The piece includes expert commentary from Lisa Nemeth, Director of Market Assistance and Training at Cereals Canada, a national non-profit that represents Canada’s grain value chain.
“The African region is seeing rising wheat consumption with limited production, leading to significant imports in Nigeria, Kenya, Sudan, South Africa, Ethiopia and Tanzania. The region purchased 30 million tonnes in 2024-25 and is expected to buy the same amount in 2025-26, up from 22 million tonnes a decade ago.
The increase in demand is driven by the region’s population and economic growth. The European Union and Russia are the main suppliers of wheat to sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for about 70 per cent of total imports.
But Canada and the United States are also players in the region. “While markets are largely price sensitive, consumers are increasingly choosing high-quality wheat,” the USDA report said.
Over the past five years, Canada has shipped an average of 800,000 tonnes of wheat and durum (hard wheat) annually to Nigeria. Mills use durum to blend with low-protein wheat. “Market development in Nigeria has certainly been successful,” Nemeth said.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Nigeria is the region’s largest buyer and is projected to become the world’s 11th-largest wheat importer in 2025–26, with shipments of 6.4 million tonnes.
“Nigeria has a large milling industry that blends cheaper wheat from the EU and Black Sea regions with higher-quality wheat from Canada and the U.S. to produce flour to meet growing consumer demand for bread, cakes and cookies,” the USDA said in a report.
Nemeth noted that Ghana is the region’s second-largest buyer of Canadian wheat. One miller in the country has moved into pasta production and is now looking to learn more about Canadian wheat.
Canada partners with multinational millers in Ghana, which helps supply Canadian wheat to smaller African countries such as Mozambique, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.
A USDA report says Kenya is the second-largest wheat importer in sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria, and it is projected to buy 2.6 million tonnes of the crop in 2025-26. Consumption is growing due to rising disposable income among young people and a shift toward more Western-style diets.
Despite the ongoing conflict, Sudan is also projected to import 2.6 million tons of wheat and flour. The country has a flour milling industry that historically processed more than 2.5 million tons of wheat annually, but the conflict has caused a sharp decline in milling. As a result, the country is importing less grain and more flour.
South Africa, a major consumer of maize, is seeing a rise in wheat consumption. The country is projected to import two million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26.
Some of this imported wheat will be processed into flour for export to other parts of the continent.
Tanzania’s wheat imports have surged over the last decade, fueled by a growing population and a strengthening economy.
In 2025-26, the country is anticipated to import 1.3 million tonnes of wheat to satisfy the increasing consumer demand for wheat-based products and the expanding hotel and tourism sector. Tanzania primarily sources its milling wheat from Russia.
In 2025, Canada is forecast to export 26.2 million tonnes of wheat, positioning it as the world’s second-largest wheat exporter and the leading exporter of high-quality, high-protein wheat.
Source: UKrAgro Consult
