The World Bank has issued a warning regarding the stability of the global food system, noting that despite an adequate volume of total supplies, deep vulnerabilities persist across the globe. 

In its June 2026 Food & Nutrition Security Update, the institution highlighted a volatile mix of surging input costs, geopolitical friction, and looming climate threats that risk reversing years of progress in poverty reduction.

“Global food and nutrition security remains fragile,” the World Bank stated in its assessment, pointing out that while supplies of major staples remain broadly adequate, higher costs and supply chain disruptions continue to put pressure on market prices. 

A primary driver of the current instability is the volatile international fertiliser market. Over the first five months of 2026, global fertiliser prices jumped 35 per cent compared to the same period last year. 

Although prices have eased slightly in recent weeks, economists warn that the damage to upcoming harvests may already be done due to reduced fertiliser applications by farmers earlier in the planting season. 

Furthermore, projections indicate that overall fertiliser prices are expected to rise by 38 per cent on average across 2026.

Compounding these supply chain issues is the rapidly growing threat of severe weather patterns. Meteorologists and agricultural analysts are particularly focused on the high probability of an impending El Niño cycle, which could decimate crop yields in highly vulnerable regions. 

The report notes a 61 to 87 per cent probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and persisting into 2027. 

If realised, rice output could fall by 20 to 50 per cent in affected regions, with South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia most exposed, further deepening food insecurity in already vulnerable countries.

The human toll of these converging factors remains most severe in conflict-ridden and climate-stressed zones. 

Domestic food price inflation remains moderately high worldwide, showing minor improvements in high-income nations but deteriorating in low-income countries. 

The share of low-income nations suffering from food inflation above five per cent rose from 40 per cent to 45 per cent between April and May 2026. 

Currently, in East Africa alone, an estimated 44 million to 47 million people are in urgent need of food assistance, with active famine conditions confirmed in parts of Sudan and credible famine risks looming in Somalia. 

The international community faces growing pressure to implement targeted support and early warning drought systems to prevent localised supply strains from spiralling into widespread humanitarian crises.

Source: Punch News
Image Credit: Abuja Politico