The global food system in 2025 is operating under a paradigm of persistent economic stagnation and structural vulnerability. According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2025, global growth is projected to stabilise at a modest 2.7 per cent through 2026. In Africa, the situation is increasingly critical, with an estimated 61.6 million food-insecure individuals in East Africa and nearly 50 million people projected to face similar challenges in Western and Central Africa.

Global agricultural commodity prices showed volatility in late 2025. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 125.1 points in November, down 1.2% from October, while the cereal index rose 1.8% due to a 2.5% wheat surge from strong demand and Black Sea supply issues.

Global Agricultural Commodity Price Trends 2025

The economic stagnation mentioned in the Global Economic Prospects report is further exacerbated by trade disruptions and high inflation, which disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations. Proposed international tariffs and protectionist measures are estimated to potentially decrease global growth by 0.3 percentage points, further straining the financial capacity of food-importing nations. In this context, African nations must navigate a global market where maize prices have reached 15-month highs due to supply limitations, while other staples like wheat and rice remain significantly higher than pre-2020 levels.

Regional Inflation Profiles

The moderation of inflation varies significantly by sub-region, reflecting different levels of currency stability and harvest success.

In Nigeria, while food inflation hit 11.08%, the absolute prices of certain staples are still projected to reach “historical highs” for the 2024/2025 season. AFEX projects that maize could peak at $N 1,200,000$ per metric ton, and sorghum could see a 102% increase due to industrial demand shifting from expensive maize.

Investment and Logistics Challenges

Mezuo Nwuneli, Managing Partner at Sahel Capital, provides a sobering perspective on agricultural investment. While agriculture contributes approximately 24% of Nigeria’s GDP, the sector receives only about 3% of total bank lending, roughly $1 billion in capital. Nwuneli observes that most of this funding is directed toward large, established businesses, leaving small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to struggle with high borrowing costs and limited scale.²²

Logistics remain a massive contributor to food costs. In Nigeria, transport services contributed 1.54 percentage points to headline inflation in late 2025. When trucks spend days on dilapidated roads or are delayed by insecurity, the cost of fuel, labour, and spoilage is transferred to the final price tag of staples like rice and beans.

Post-Harvest Inefficiencies

Nigeria’s annual loss of $N 3.5$ trillion (roughly $10 billion USD) is one of the highest in the world. These losses occur primarily at three stages:

• Drying: Inadequate facilities lead to moisture levels above 14%, causing fungal damage.
• Storage: Lack of pest-proof warehouses leads to insect and rat damage.
• Milling: Outdated equipment causes grain cracking, reducing the yield of marketable rice by 14%.

Government Responses

The Nigerian government has launched two flagship programs in 2025 to address these structural gaps: the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP) and the Nigeria Postharvest Systems Transformation Programme (NiPHaST).

NAGS-AP: Productivity at the Source

NAGS-AP is a $2.75 billion initiative funded in part by the African Development Bank. Its core objective is to provide 5 million farmers with subsidised, high-quality inputs.

• Wheat Expansion: The program grew from 15 participating states in 2023 to national coverage in 2025.
• Dry Season Targets: In the 2025/2026 dry season, the government has earmarked 40,000 hectares for wheat production, targeting 80,000 registered farmers with an expected output value of $N 160$ billion.
• Digital Transparency: To eliminate “ghost beneficiaries,” the program utilises a digital registry with geo-tagging for farmers and farmlands.

NiPHaST: The Legacy Storage Project

Unveiled in late 2025, NiPHaST is the Ministry of Agriculture’s strategy to reclaim the $N 3.5$ trillion lost annually.

• The Three-Tier Model: 85% of interventions target household storage, 10% focus on secondary processing, and 5% modernize tertiary level links through public-private partnerships.
• Infrastructure: The program plans to deploy solar-powered cold storage and climate-smart metal silos to stabilise prices by reducing seasonal gluts.

The AfCFTA is prioritising five key commodities for regional value chain development: maize, cassava, chicken, palm oil, and soya. By harmonising standards and removing tariffs, the continent can reduce its $35 billion annual food import bill.

Actionable Steps

 For African Food Buyers and Households

• Leverage Cooperative Buying: Joining community-supported agriculture (CSA) programs or food cooperatives (like the FLAP Multipurpose Cooperative) can lower the unit cost of staples like rice and flour by up to 40%.
• Prioritise Seasonal and Local: Locally grown foods are typically 20–30% cheaper than imported alternatives. Directly sourcing from farm-to-table initiatives reduces the transportation costs passed to consumers.
• Implement FIFO (First-In, First-Out): Households can save up to 25% of their budget annually by planning meals and using proper airtight storage to eliminate home-level waste.

For African Farmers and Agribusinesses

• Adopt Climate-Smart Seeds: Switching to drought-tolerant varieties (like NERICA rice or Bt Cowpea) can increase yields from 1 ton to as high as 5 tons per hectare with proper management.
• Monetise By-products: For every ton of paddy rice, 40% is by-product (husk and straw). These can be converted into micronised biomass silica boards for furniture, creating secondary income and jobs.

Invest in Water Management: Techniques like Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) in rice farming conserve water and reduce irrigation costs by intermittently draining fields instead of constant flooding.