Nigeria has historically maintained restrictive trade policies marked by high tariffs and extensive import bans. These, combined with poor infrastructure and currency controls, have fostered widespread smuggling.
Neighbouring countries like Benin and Togo became hubs for cross-border entrepôt trade, largely to serve Nigeria’s black market. While Nigeria initially attempted to phase out import bans in the late 1990s, this trend reversed by 2002.
By 2004, 218 products faced import bans, and despite being a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Nigeria maintained these prohibitions.
Limited reforms occurred in 2008 due to ECOWAS obligations, but many bans remained amid delayed tariff harmonisation.
The Nigerian agriculture before 2015 was predominantly subsistence-based. Farmers relied heavily on manual labour, with minimal access to mechanised tools or government support.
Even as modern methods slowly emerged post-independence, productivity in Nigerian agriculture remained low. Only about one-third of Nigeria’s arable land was cultivated. Domestic farmers faced stiff competition from imported food items, leading to diminished returns and reduced investment in local agriculture.
In 2015, under President Muhammadu Buhari, the Central Bank of Nigeria restricted access to foreign exchange for 43 categories of imports to promote local production and preserve foreign reserves. However, these measures failed to strengthen Nigerian agriculture.
Local producers struggled to meet national food demand due to insufficient government support, inadequate infrastructure, and poor agricultural inputs.
A typical example is the production of local rice. It often contained stones (still does) and remained uncompetitive in quality and quantity. Meanwhile, food prices soared, exacerbating hardship for Nigerian households.
Nigerians had been struggling to survive the high prices of staples since the Buhari-led administration’s import restrictions. However, by May 2024, food inflation had surpassed 40%, with the cost of staple foods like rice, maize, wheat, and beans doubling between 2023, which kicked off Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, and 2024.
The skyrocketing changes in food prices became so bad that the World Bank, FAO, and WFP projected that 32 million Nigerians would face severe hunger in 2024.
Although the bans aimed to stimulate local production, the poor state of Nigeria’s agricultural infrastructure and persistent insecurity meant the policy backfired. Nigerians paid higher prices without significant improvements in food quality or availability.
Due to continued inflation, local food prices now compete with imported goods. Farmers and Nigerian agriculture face additional challenges, including violent conflicts with herders, insufficient machinery, high logistics costs, and insecurity. Government initiatives like NIRSAL and NATIP have had a limited impact.
The 2015 import ban and subsequent 2023 restriction lifts have not significantly improved Nigerian agricultural productivity or farmer welfare. The gap between policy intentions and implementation remains wide.
In response to the escalating food crisis, the federal government introduced a 150-day duty-free window in July 2024 to import essential items like maize, wheat, and husked brown rice. This was part of the Presidential Accelerated Stabilisation and Advancement Plan (PASAP), which also included importing 250,000 metric tonnes of grain to replenish strategic reserves.
Despite initial optimism and stakeholder backlash, including from AfDB president, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, the policy failed to yield the expected relief. By December 2024, food prices remained high due to naira devaluation and continued reliance on imports. The official exchange rate hit ₦1,535/$1, significantly raising import costs.
Food inflation surged to nearly 21.26% as of April 2025, and a 50kg bag of rice reached ₦100,000. Despite policy shifts, Nigerian agriculture could not compete with cheaper imports, and Nigeria continued importing millions of metric tonnes of rice annually.
Import bans altered local food markets, particularly in border states where smuggling helped stabilise prices. Studies show that states closer to Benin experienced smaller price hikes due to easier access to smuggled goods.
While the bans aimed to protect local producers, they inadvertently increased the cost burden on the poor. Border states often remained better integrated with informal trade networks, reducing the intended impact of the bans. Local markets stayed linked for some goods despite restrictions, suggesting informal supply chains continued to fill demand gaps.
Import bans have worsened poverty and food insecurity. Between 2020 and 2022, Nigeria’s per capita agricultural output was among the lowest globally, and food inflation hit record highs in 2024 and 2025.
For instance, imported rice prices rose from ₦30,000 to about ₦100,000 per bag within a year. Local production within the Nigerian agriculture could not fill the void, especially for high-demand items like chicken and sugar.
Nigeria’s locally produced and imported food supply is inadequate for its large population. Some local food items now cost more than their international equivalents, particularly those subject to import bans or high tariffs.
To address these issues, Nigeria must shift from an import-substitution approach to an export-driven agricultural strategy. This means focusing on producing and exporting what Nigeria grows well, while using imports to supplement shortages.Import bans should be selective and data-driven, targeting only those items where local capacity can adequately meet demand. Blanket restrictions without corresponding support for domestic production will continue to worsen Nigerian agriculture, food insecurity, and economic hardship.
