Climate change refers to global warming and its far-reaching impacts on the Earth’s climate system, including long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns, drought intensity, cloud cover, flooding, and heat regimes.

Rising temperatures can accelerate evapotranspiration, resulting in soil moisture loss and increased water demand by crops. Cocoa and coffee are climate-sensitive crops. Coffee, particularly the Arabica variety, requires mild temperatures and specific altitude and moisture conditions to flourish. 

Cocoa accounts for approximately 20% of Nigeria’s non-oil exports and employs a significant number of the agricultural labour force. Nigeria’s reliance on Cocoa as a major non-oil export highlights the gravity of climate change threats. Any significant shift in weather patterns directly impacts their yield, quality, and commercial viability.

This article assesses the impact of climate change on cocoa and coffee production in Nigeria. It proposes adaptive strategies to help farmers safeguard their crops and incomes amid growing climatic uncertainty.

Cocoa Production in Nigeria

Cocoa was introduced to Nigeria in the 1870s, first in Bonny and Calabar, though these areas proved unsuitable. By 1880, cultivation had moved to Lagos, Agege, and Ota, eventually spreading to Yoruba regions such as Ibadan, Ondo, Ife, and Ekiti. The main variety grown was Amelonado cacao, from Brazil and Trinidad.

In the 1950s and 1960s, Cocoa became Nigeria’s top agricultural export and a key source of foreign exchange, making the country the world’s second-largest producer. Central cocoa-producing states include Ondo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, and Cross River.

From the 1970s onward, the discovery of crude oil reduced the focus on agriculture, including Cocoa. Today, beyond neglect and underinvestment, climate change threatens cocoa production. These challenges compound existing issues, such as ageing trees and poor infrastructure.

How Climate Change Impacts Cocoa Production

Cocoa stands out among Nigeria’s agricultural commodities as economically vital and ecologically sensitive. Changes in climate conditions, such as increased heat or irregular rainfall, can severely affect its productivity. As a tropical evergreen tree crop, cocoa thrives within narrow temperature and rainfall thresholds, generally between 20°C and 28°C, with an annual rainfall of 150–200 cm distributed evenly throughout the year.

Some effects of climate change on cocoa include:

• Lower yields and reduced cocoa quality caused by unpredictable rainfall and drought.
• Disrupted cocoa flowering and fruiting cycles as a result of prolonged dry spells.
• Increased pest populations, such as mirids (capsid bugs), combined with wetter conditions and temperature shifts, have led to a surge in diseases like black pod and pests, further reducing yields and quality.
• Low soil fertility caused by deforestation and over-cultivation.

Coffee Production in Nigeria

Coffee was introduced to Nigeria during British colonial rule, with the first exports in 1896. It thrived in highland regions like Taraba, Cross River, and the Mambilla Plateau. By the 1960s and 1970s, coffee, mostly robusta in lowlands and arabica in highlands, became a key cash crop.In recent times, climate change has endangered the crop. 

How Climate Change Impacts Coffee Production

Nigeria grows Arabica and Robusta coffee in Plateau, Taraba, and some highland areas of the South. Arabica, in particular, is highly sensitive to warming temperatures.

Coffee production is equally vulnerable:

• Declining yields: Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall have led to a steady decline in Nigerian coffee quantity and quality.
• Pest and disease pressure: Climate-induced stress makes coffee plants more susceptible to pests and diseases, such as the coffee berry borer and leaf rust.
• Abandonment of farms: Many small-scale coffee farmers are abandoning their farms due to unprofitable yields and climate unpredictability, threatening the future of coffee in Nigeria

Adaptive Farming Practices for Cocoa and Coffee Production in Nigeria

Dr. Patrick Adebola, Executive Director of the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria, emphasises: “To sustain Nigeria’s position in the global cocoa market amid climate change, our farmers must embrace modern, climate-resilient cultivation methods. This means not only adopting improved seedlings and irrigation but also investing in agroforestry and soil health. The future of cocoa and coffee in Nigeria depends on our willingness to innovate and adapt to the realities of a changing climate.”

Adapting cocoa and coffee farming in Nigeria to climate change demands improved practices, better crop choices, and long-term support for farmers.

1. Climate-Smart Agriculture: One of the most effective starting points is adopting climate-smart agriculture. This approach includes using drought-resistant crop varieties, improving irrigation techniques, and applying soil conservation practices that help retain moisture and reduce erosion. These interventions safeguard crops during dry spells and enhance overall productivity.
2. Agroforestry: Agroforestry, or the integration of trees within cocoa and coffee farms, offers a powerful natural solution. By combining crops with trees such as plantain, moringa, or gliricidia, farmers can create shade that buffers extreme heat, improves soil health, and even reduces the spread of pests. The presence of trees also supports carbon sequestration and biodiversity, turning the farm into part of the broader climate solution. In many regions, this intercropping has the added advantage of generating extra income through fruit, fuelwood, or timber, while stabilising yields in uncertain weather conditions.
3. Crop Diversification: In areas where climate conditions are shifting rapidly, diversification is emerging as a survival strategy. Some farmers are exploring the possibility of transitioning from coffee to cocoa or integrating other crops better suited to new rainfall and temperature patterns. This helps reduce risk and ensures continued productivity even as local climates evolve.
4. Institutional Support: Institutions like the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) have been crucial in developing climate-resilient varieties. Their improved cocoa hybrids mature faster, tolerate higher temperatures, and resist common diseases. 
5. Rainwater Harvesting and Efficient Irrigation: With rainfall growing increasingly unpredictable, efficient water use has become non-negotiable. Rainwater harvesting, using roof catchments and storage tanks, is helping many farmers secure a backup supply during dry spells. Low-cost drip irrigation systems allow precise watering, especially when moisture is critical in flowering stages. Farmers also use mulching techniques to reduce evaporation and maintain soil moisture levels.
6. Soil Health Restoration: Soil health is another vital area that climate change affects. The increasing loss of nutrients due to extreme weather conditions calls for soil restoration strategies. Rotating cocoa and coffee with leguminous cover crops can replenish the soil, while applying compost or manure improves fertility and structure. Minimising harmful chemical inputs also helps preserve soil biodiversity and long-term productivity.
7. Integrated Pest and Disease Management (IPM): Pest and disease outbreaks are becoming more frequent under changing climate conditions, making integrated pest management (IPM) essential for sustainable production. Encouraging biological control methods, using disease-resistant crop varieties, and training farmers in early detection techniques reduce losses while minimising environmental harm.
8. Support Groups: Lastly, none of these solutions can be sustained without strong support systems. Strengthening farmer cooperatives, providing access to affordable credit, and expanding extension services are all necessary to ensure farmers can adopt and maintain adaptive practices. Access to information, tools, and funding empowers farmers to survive climate challenges and build resilient, profitable systems that support long-term national food security.

Climate change poses a significant threat to Nigeria’s cocoa and coffee industries. However with proactive adaptation and support for farmers, Nigeria can safeguard its agricultural future.