Climate change is affecting all areas of society and profoundly impacting Nigeria’s agricultural sector. The sector employs a large percentage of the labour force and contributes about 24% to the country’s GDP.

Farmers in Nigeria rely heavily on rainfed agriculture, making it crucial to understand how climate change impacts farming in the country. These changes in climatic conditions are significantly affecting crop yields, reducing productivity, and contributing to rural poverty.

The impact of climate change on staple crops like maize and yam is particularly concerning. To safeguard the future of Nigerian agriculture and ensure food security, it is important to explore and implement effective solutions that address these challenges.

What is Climate Change?

Climate change refers to long-term alterations in precipitation, temperature, wind patterns, and other aspects of Earth’s climate system. In most cases, these alterations are caused by human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes, which release greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide, methane) that trap heat in the atmosphere and disrupt natural climate cycles.

Climate Change in Nigeria

Climate change in Nigeria has evolved over the years, marked by a rise in temperatures, a shift in rainfall patterns, and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. These changes have affected the environment and agriculture.

Between 1901 and 2005, Nigeria experienced a significant temperature rise of approximately 1.1°C, a rate higher than the global average, with the most vertical increase occurring in the early 1970s. During the same period, the country’s annual rainfall declined by 81mm, particularly from the 1970s onward.

This decline led to worsening drought and desertification in northern Nigeria, while coastal areas, such as Warri and Calabar, have recorded slight increases in rainfall in recent years. In recent times, the traditional planting and harvesting calendars that were once predictable and passed down through generations are no longer reliable. This uncertainty is a risk to smallholder farmers, who comprise most of Nigeria’s farming population.

How Climate Change Causes Decline in Crop Yields

Climate change affects crop yield; here are some crops that are affected:

1. Maize: Maize is a staple food in Nigerian households and a cash crop, maize yields decline when temperatures exceed 30°C during pollination, as high temperatures disrupt pollen viability and reduce kernel formation. In northern Nigeria, where such temperatures are typical, farmers witness declining harvests. Variability in rainfall leads to poor seed germination, stunted crop growth, and increased risk of crop failure. Both delayed onset and early cessation of rains shorten the growing season, further threatening yields.

Also, warmer climates favour pests like the fall armyworm, which can devastate maize fields. Infestations are frequent and severe under unfavourable climate conditions, compounding losses from heat and drought. Without intervention, maize productivity in Nigeria is predicted to decline by 20–30% by 2050, with significant implications for food security and rural incomes.

2. Yam: Yam is also a staple and cash crop in Nigeria, and common in the middle belt and southern regions. However, changing climate patterns threaten both production and post-harvest storage, endangering food security and farmer incomes. Excessive rainfall during the tuber formation stage, now more common in states like Benue and Enugu, can lead to waterlogging, rot, and reduced yields. Shortened dry seasons have disrupted yam curing and storage, increasing vulnerability to spoilage. 

High humidity levels, especially in traditional storage systems lacking ventilation, lead to rot and fungal infections, with farmers often losing 30–40% of their harvest post-harvest. In Benue State, where over 80% of the population depends on agriculture, farmers report an increase in seed and tuber decay due to excess moisture and drought-induced wilting. Research in Cross River and Ekiti also links climate variability, such as irregular rainfall patterns and intense wet seasons, to declining yam yield and quality. These cases highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient practices and improved post-harvest storage systems.

3. Other Crops: Other crops such as cassava, rice, millet, sorghum also are not left out, rice is often grown in floodplain environments, in events of extreme floodings, rice is prone to loss. Sorghum and millet are facing declines due to reduced soil fertility and limited rainfall. Similarlycassava’s processing and storage are affected by power supply and humidity factors compounded by climate-induced volatility.

Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change on Farming Communities

A reduction in crop yields will have a significant impact on food availability, rural incomes, and national economic stability. Smallholder farmers who operate with limited access to irrigation, extension services, or improved seeds experience the most effect during climatic changes and uncertainty. Smallholder farmers, specifically women, comprise a large share of Nigeria’s agricultural workforce.

Adaptation Measures to Ease Climate Change in Nigeria 

Dr. Ismail Olawale, a strategic agriculture communication expert and fellow at the National Agricultural Extension Research and Liaison Services (NAERLS), urges farmers to avoid hasty crop cultivation due to inconsistent rainfall patterns. 

He recommends that farmers closely follow weather forecasts and predictions from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) before commencing planting each season

Similarly, these adaptation strategies can ease the impact of climate change:

• Access to Climate Information: Weather variability can be mitigated through timely and localised weather forecasts. Digital platforms, mobile apps, and radio advisories can help farmers adjust planting dates, apply inputs more efficiently, and plan harvests more effectively. Hence, collaboration with tech startups and telecom operators is essential for reaching rural farmers at scale.
• Irrigation and Water Harvesting: Nigeria’s irrigation coverage remains below 5% of its total cultivated land. Expanding small-scale irrigation, such as drip systems and solar-powered pumps, will reduce reliance on inconsistent rainfall. Rainwater harvesting and community dams can also provide supplementary water during dry spells.
• Financing and Insurance: Innovative financial products, such as microinsurance for crop failure, climate risk bonds, and mobile-based credit systems, are emerging as vital tools. Government-backed agricultural credit schemes must also prioritise climate resilience and reward adopting sustainable practices.
• Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA): CSA is a comprehensive approach that integrates sustainable farming practices with climate adaptation and resilience. These include:
  1. Conservation agriculture 
  2. Agroforestry, which integrates trees into farmland to reduce erosion and enhance soil health
  3. Crop rotation and intercropping to improve nutrient cycling and pest resistance
  4. Integrated pest management using biocontrols instead of harmful chemicals
  5. Promoting CSA through targeted training, extension services, and financial incentives can help build long-term resilience.

The Role of Policy and Governance

Policy coherence and institutional support are crucial for these adaptation strategies to succeed. 

Major recommendations include:

• Integrating climate risk assessments into national agricultural policies and budgeting
• Strengthening extension services to disseminate best practices and technology
• Investing in rural infrastructure (roads, storage, energy) to reduce post-harvest losses and enhance market access
• Fostering collaboration between research institutions, farmer cooperatives, NGOs, and international donors

Moreover, Nigeria’s participation in global climate initiatives, such as the UN’s Climate-Smart Agriculture program and the African Adaptation Initiative, should be leveraged to attract technical and financial support.

Climate change is already impacting crop yields in Nigeria, and the consequences will intensify without bold, coordinated action. The agricultural sector stands at a crossroads: either it embraces transformation through innovation, policy reform, and resilience-building or faces deepening food insecurity and economic disruption.

By adopting and scaling proven solutions, Nigeria can turn the climate crisis into an opportunity for a more sustainable, secure, and thriving agricultural future.