The Federal Government’s plan to double milk production in Nigeria within five years has been described as overly ambitious and unlikely by industry experts and agricultural stakeholders.
Nigeria produces approximately 700,000 metric tons of milk annually, falling short of the 1.6 million metric tons consumed nationwide.
The shortfall leads to over $1.5 billion in annual dairy imports, according to sector analysts.
Despite the country’s estimated 20.9 million cattle, most are low-yield, pastoralist breeds that contribute minimally to national milk and beef output.
Nigeria also has about 60 million sheep and 1.4 million goats, though their role in milk production is limited.
Stakeholders who spoke to the Daily Independent emphasised that addressing this gap requires more than just policy announcements.
Experts say a comprehensive overhaul of the dairy value chain, including animal genetics, infrastructure, veterinary services, logistics, and investment in ranching systems, is essential to boosting production.
“Any plan to double milk production in Nigeria is only ambitious and aspirational. That ambition and aspiration are good,” said Dianabasi Akpainyang, Executive Director of the Commercial Dairy Rancher Association of Nigeria (CODARAN).
“However, I see such an aspiration as unrealistic, judged by evidence on the ground. The reason is that to double milk production,
Nigeria must either import dairy cows that can produce over 600 million litres of milk within five years or improve the capacity of the cows in the country to increase their milk production. Or can combine both.”
He noted that dairy cows capable of such yields require consistent care and resources that go beyond declarations.
“The funds, the structures to nurture the cows, the feed, the health management. All these need to be done simultaneously for the cows to produce milk optimally and double milk volumes in five years. It’s a very ambitious target.”
Akpainyang further stated that improving the genetics of local cows is a long-term process.
“Even if there is an artificial insemination breeding programme, the natural gestation period will still take place before the cow calves are ready for milking. These are long-term processes, and dairy production normally is a long-term enterprise and would rarely respond positively to quick fixes.”
He added that global evidence shows that doubling milk output often takes a decade or more, even in countries with consistent investment.
Dr. Shoyombojo Ayoola, from the Department of Animal Science, College of Agricultural Science, Landmark University, Kwara State, noted that the five-year target is technically realistic but heavily dependent on systemic reform.
“It demands a systemic overhaul of the dairy value chain, from animal genetics to cold chain logistics.”
He said the plan could work if the government ensures significant investment in infrastructure, private sector incentives, strong veterinary systems, and supports the transition of pastoralists to semi-intensive or intensive models.
Dr. Ayoola projected that revitalising Nigeria’s livestock and dairy value chain would require over ₦200 billion in funding which includes investments in milk collection and cold chain infrastructure, improved livestock genetics and veterinary services, feed production and water supply in grazing areas, as well as farmer training, quality control, and data systems.
He emphasised the need for technical expertise, coordinated efforts, and political will to implement these strategies.
“If done right, it will not only reduce Nigeria’s reliance on dairy imports but also transform the rural economy and boost national nutrition outcomes.”
On dairy cattle performance, Udeme Etuk, Managing Director of Chanan Elo’a Integrated Farm Limited, observed that many cows in Nigeria are underdeveloped and low-yielding.
“You still find cows that cannot give more than two to three litres of milk. Even after grooming and crossing, the highest you get is about six litres, unlike the 18 to 22 litres per day from cows in advanced countries.”
Etuk also criticised the nomadic system of cattle rearing, saying it limits beef quality and overall livestock health.
“If they are raised in the place where they are fed and properly taken care of, I can tell you comfortably that they will look better, and the quality of beef will taste better.”
On infrastructure, Akpainyang highlighted key areas needing investment to support the dairy sector, including improving rural roads, expanding cold chain storage for milk, semen, and vaccines, installing solar power systems for rural dairy operations, and enhancing rail transport to move fodder and milk across regions efficiently.
The stakeholders concluded that a multi-billion-naira commitment is required to meet the national production goal.
While the ambition to boost dairy output is widely supported, experts insist it must be approached with long-term investment, strong policy execution, and industry coordination.
