Nigeria’s farming sector is experiencing its worst performance in over 40 years, threatening its ability to feed its people.
Experts warn that rising insecurity, worsening climate challenges, and outdated storage and processing systems reduce productivity. A new approach is urgently needed.
A report from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) shows that agricultural growth has plummeted to its lowest level since the 1980s, when Nigeria launched its Green Revolution Programme. The sector’s GDP growth, which hit a high of 16.7% between 2002 and 2006, has slumped to an average of just 1.2% from 2021 to 2024—the weakest since the 2.9% recorded between 1992 and 1996.
A five-year average shows that GDP growth peaked at 16.7 percent between 2002 and 2006 but has continued to dip, averaging just 1.2 percent between 2021 and 2024, a new low since its 2.9 percent growth between 1992 and 1996.
Notably, agricultural productivity has slipped far below global benchmarks across key staples, even as the country’s food needs continue to rise.
NESG’s latest findings show that Nigeria produces only 1.9 metric tonnes of rice per hectare(MT/ha), compared to a global average of 4.7. For wheat, the local yield stands at 1.1MT/ha, while the global figure is 3.7. Maize, a major staple crop, yields just 2.0MT/ha in Nigeria against 5.9 globally.
These gaps mean Nigeria must rely heavily on food imports to meet domestic demand, a vulnerability it has quickly realised is expensive and unsustainable. The group estimates shortfalls of 2.4 million tonnes in rice, 5.7 million in wheat, and 1.1 million in maize, which must be satisfied, or a food crisis looms.
The root causes are not far-fetched, according to MacDonald Ukah, thematic lead for agriculture at the NESG, who said the situation reflects unresolved internal issues, including frustration and fear from unprotected farmers for their untamed oppressors.
“Farmers are terrified to visit their farms,” he said, referencing the wave of insecurity in farming communities across Nigeria. “It’s leading to a decline in output.”
According to the report, “longstanding ineffectiveness in improving poor pectoral productivity” has been compounded by an insecurity crisis that has worsened over the past decade.
Across Nigeria, many farmlands are abandoned after farmers were forced to flee violence inflicted by insurgents, bandits, and armed conflicts. Millions of naira in investments are lost, and farmers or agribusinesses are forced to spend more on security, hiring private guards or seeking protection from local vigilante groups, which increases operational costs.
Climate events are further compounding the problem. Erratic rainfall, flooding, and longer dry spells have made farming more uncertain. “Weather events [are occurring] more frequently,” Ukah added.
The NESG says the way forward in rejuvenating Nigeria’s food system is strictly sticking to a “food balance equation,” which is a framework that prioritises strong domestic production, with imports used only to compensate for shortfalls, and reserves to retain output. Exports, they said, follow value addition when surpluses exist.
“Productivity is the principal concern,” NESG noted.
Experts suggest Nigeria can reverse this decline by adopting modern farming technology and equipment to boost output, improving access to loans and insurance for small-scale farmers vulnerable to weather and market changes, enhancing security in rural areas so farmers can work safely, and building better storage and processing facilities to cut food losses and stabilise supplies.
The NESG and other stakeholders stress that words alone won’t solve the problem, Nigeria needs fundamental, practical reforms to secure its food future.
